Dear BaseballInsighters,
Fresh off the presses, we present the BaseballInsights’ 2007
Top 30 Rookie List with some differences you might not see in your Roto magazine
of choice. First, we’ve included the
picks in an excel spreadsheet that you can customize to your liking (more on
this in a moment). Second, our rankings
attempt to balance a player’s shorter term value against their longer term
potential. Justin Upton is a great case
in point in that he (may) have unlimited upside in 2010-11, which is a long-term
buy even in the deepest of keeper leagues but he simply shouldn’t be much of a
factor until 2009, with significant growth in 2010 and ’11. Third, we’re sharing our high-level logic as
to how we rank the rooks which is based on four key factors (all on a 1-10
scale, 10 being the best):
1) Opportunity – represents
a player’s chance of “getting the call” to the Big Time.
2) Contribution – represents the impact a
player will have in any of the 10 statistical categories generally used in 5x5
leagues. Let’s face it, some prospects
really won’t add measurable value in any one statistical category…. ever!
3) Playing Time – once the player is
called up, how often will they play?
Will Felix Pie sit vs. LHPs once he’s called up? Will Tim Lincecum start or will he break into
the bullpen, reducing his opportunity to rack up K’s and Wins?
4) Ceiling – very subjective measure of
the player’s long-term potential (think 3-5 years out).
The results are a bit different than what we’ve seen
elsewhere – Kevin “The Kooz” Kouzmanoff hasn’t broken into too many Top 10
Lists, but because he’s ready to add value come opening day, his value, at
least based on our crazy logic, is significantly higher than Justin Upton’s
over the next 2 years.
Enjoy and by all means let us know what you think at GM@baseballinsights.com and please
feel free to share with your Roto family.
As a shameless plug, we plan to add player news, top 10
advancers/decliners and Actual Value Earned by position once the season starts.
Good Health, Wealth and Pitching,
Dave Wysocky
GM BaseballInsights
BaseballInsights Top
30 Rooks
|
|
Player
|
Position
|
Team
|
Score
|
Opportunity
|
Contribution
|
Playing Time
|
Ceiling
|
|
1
|
Alex Gordon
|
3B
|
KC
|
10.00
|
10
|
10
|
10
|
10
|
|
2
|
Delmon Young
|
OF
|
TB
|
9.70
|
10
|
10
|
9
|
10
|
|
3
|
Chris Young
|
OF
|
ARZ
|
8.90
|
10
|
8
|
9
|
9
|
|
4
|
Philip Hughes
|
P
|
NYY
|
8.00
|
6
|
8
|
9
|
10
|
|
5
|
Troy Tulowitzki
|
SS
|
COL
|
8.00
|
10
|
6
|
9
|
7
|
|
6
|
Ryan Braun
|
3B
|
MIL
|
7.90
|
7
|
9
|
7
|
9
|
|
7
|
Homer Bailey
|
P
|
CIN
|
7.55
|
6
|
7
|
9
|
9
|
|
8
|
Kevin Kouzmanoff
|
3B
|
SD
|
7.35
|
9
|
6
|
8
|
6
|
|
9
|
Brandon Wood
|
SS
|
ANA
|
7.25
|
5
|
8
|
8
|
8
|
|
10
|
Adam Miller
|
P
|
CLE
|
7.25
|
8
|
5
|
9
|
8
|
|
11
|
Luke Hochevar
|
P
|
KC
|
7.15
|
6
|
7
|
8
|
8
|
|
12
|
Josh Fields
|
3B/OF
|
CHA
|
7.15
|
6
|
7
|
8
|
8
|
|
13
|
Matt Garza
|
P
|
MIN
|
7.05
|
7
|
6
|
8
|
8
|
|
14
|
Yovani Gallardo
|
P
|
MIL
|
6.90
|
5
|
7
|
8
|
8
|
|
15
|
Miguel Montero
|
C
|
ARZ
|
6.85
|
9
|
6
|
6
|
7
|
|
16
|
Andrew McCutchen
|
OF
|
PIT
|
6.80
|
4
|
8
|
7
|
9
|
|
17
|
Andrew Miller
|
P
|
DET
|
6.80
|
4
|
6
|
9
|
10
|
|
18
|
Adam Lind
|
OF
|
TOR
|
6.70
|
6
|
6
|
8
|
7
|
|
19
|
Mike Pelfrey
|
P
|
NYM
|
6.60
|
7
|
5
|
8
|
7
|
|
20
|
Hunter Pence
|
OF
|
HOU
|
6.50
|
5
|
7
|
7
|
7
|
|
21
|
Jacob Ellsbury
|
OF
|
BOS
|
6.40
|
4
|
8
|
6
|
8
|
|
22
|
Evan Longoria
|
3B/SS
|
TB
|
6.30
|
4
|
6
|
8
|
8
|
|
23
|
Alberto Callaspo
|
2B/SS
|
ARZ
|
6.30
|
6
|
6
|
7
|
6
|
|
24
|
Billy Butler
|
OF
|
KC
|
6.25
|
4
|
7
|
7
|
7
|
|
25
|
Tim Lincecum
|
P
|
SF
|
6.25
|
5
|
6
|
7
|
8
|
|
26
|
Glen Perkins
|
P
|
MIN
|
6.25
|
5
|
6
|
7
|
8
|
|
27
|
Jeff Niemann
|
P
|
TB
|
6.20
|
4
|
6
|
8
|
7
|
|
28
|
Felix Pie
|
OF
|
CHI
|
6.15
|
5
|
6
|
7
|
7
|
|
29
|
Andy LaRoche
|
3B
|
LA
|
6.10
|
6
|
6
|
6
|
7
|
|
30
|
Reid Brignac
|
SS
|
TB
|
6.05
|
3
|
6
|
8
|
8
|
