Dear BaseballInsighters,

 

Like you, we’re typically frustrated by the so called sleepers identified in most roto mags, particularly for N.L./A.L. only leagues.  In many keeper leagues, the Chris Young’s and Stephen Drew’s of the world were taken in last year’s draft, leaving little insight for team owners to go on. With that in mind, and thinking of those in deep N.L. only leagues, we’ve culled out 10 N.L. "Hibernators" that are virtual flatliners for those of us without a Magic 8-ball (Note: Expected Value is an estimate of what the player will actually produce in ’07, not the amount you would pay at the draft).  As always, all thoughts are welcome at either www.baseballInsights.com or GM@baseballInsights.com.

 

Todd Linden, OF, Giants 

• Expected Value $5.08, .268/.334/.453, 8HR, 31RBIs in 227ABs
• Although we only expect $5.08 in performance, Linden has even stronger upside given the fragility of Bonds and Dave Roberts.  Linden has put up insane numbers in AAA (30 HR in only 340 ABs in ‘05) and will only turn 27 in June.  A great end-game pickup or supplemental pick.

 

Eliezer Alfonzo, C, Giants

• Expected Value $3.74, .264/.302/.467, 10HR, 37RBIs in 231 AB’s
• Fonzie can hit and could definitely start for several teams (hint: Astros) and although our projection is a slight regression from his ’06 season, expect double digit HRs and a reasonable enough average for mere pennies a serving.  Owners in deep leagues who are scrambling for a second catcher late in the draft should be thrilled to land Alfonzo.

 

Craig Wilson, 1B/OF, Braves

• Expected Value $9.50, .269/.337/.449, 17HRs, 51RBIs in 389 Abs
• Wilson will no doubt carve out time in LF and 1B, and although his ABs are dependent on the performances of Diaz and Thorman, we expect one, if not both, to under produce, creating more opportunities for Wilson.  Expect the over on our predictions.

 

Carlos Villanueva, P, Brewers

• Expected Value $16.71, 3.87 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 11 W, 133K/51BB in 178.3 INN.
• OK, this is one of those predictions that has a significant margin for error, but you gotta have some cojones when estimating player performance.  Despite naysayers who point to Villanueva’s back of the rotation ceiling, we think last year’s showing along with success in the high minors will translate reasonably well to a breakthrough ’07.   He may need either Vargas or Zach Jackson to step down as the 5^th starter, but at some point, we expect him to take the reigns and pitch well for the bulk of the ’07 season – let’s hope the opportunity comes quickly.

 

Scott Hairston, OF, Diamondbacks

• Expected Value $1.37, .243/.304/.449, 8HRs, 26 RBIs in 189 ABs
• Agreed – our expected value line isn’t exactly inspirational, but we expect a trade as Hairston is ready to hit in the Major Leagues.  He’ll make the team as a backup and he’s a great supplemental pick that you should have on the radar screen.

 

 

Chris Snelling, OF, Nationals

• Expected Value $4.30, .269/.368/.422, 7 HRs, 26 RBIs and 5 SBs in 289 ABs      
• Ryan Church will get first crack at LF, and although we see good things happening, you have to hope that Manny Acta doesn’t bench Church during his first dry spell which is exactly where he found himself during long stretches of ‘06.  Factor in Church’s propensity to break down, along with Nook Logan’s inability to steal first base, we feel Snelling could find some valuable playing time and produce.

 

Others to watch:

• Chris Denorfia – Expect a trade (Hello?…. Anyone working the phones in the Marlins front office?)
• Manny Corpas/Ramon Ramirez – Expect a Fuentes trade at some point in ’07 with Corpas battling Ramirez for saves
• Angel Guzman – Chalk ’06 up to a painful learning experience.  The stuff is there and we know that Wade Miller breaks down more than a ’77 Chevette.  He’ll definitely get a chance and significantly improve on ’06.
• Ben Johnson – C’mon, Alou will spend at least 30 games in dry dock and Shawn Green will be the underwhelming Shawn Green.  Throw in some missed time for Beltran and a major regression for Endy Chavez and you may see more of Johnson than you expect.  He’ll be 27 in June – time is right to step up.