Much like the realtor coming by to tell you what your house
is worth, the 2007 LABR draft provides those of us, even in keeper leagues,
with a sense of property values before hitting the draft table. By virtue of the designation “expert”, we
expect most of these soothsayers to be targeting a similar list of undervalued
players, but even experienced speculators know when to close the checkbook when
it comes to positional battles, injury risks and manager idiosyncrasies
(ahh…we’ll miss you Frank Robinson).
Here are a few of the N.L. LABR notables with our BaseballInsights
values and predicted stats in parentheses:
- Tim
Hudson, $6 ($15.38, 11 Wins, 4.04 ERA, 1.37 WHIP)
$6?
Seems like a great gamble for a healthy guy with a 3.53 lifetime
ERA. No, we’re not expecting Hudson to relive has past
glories, but we can expect some improvement and a performance closer to his
career averages. Nice rotation
filler! I guess the experts felt the
heartburn of expecting a similar resurgence in ’06.
- Chris
Duncan, $11 ($17.03, .277/.347/.485 with 25 HRs, 75 RBIs)
We’re not surprised that the smart
money is skeptical of a repeat performance, but at $11, this seems too
skeptical given Duncan’s
69K:30BB in 208 ABs along with his .363 OBP.
Yes, the OBP can be attributed in part to his somewhat inflated .293
AVG, but all things considered, he should jack 20-25 HRs and post nice Runs and
RBIs given his lineup positioning.
- Chris
Young, $23 ($19.72, .270/.347/.453 with 18 HRs, 62 RBIs, 87 Runs and 18
SBs)
OK, so we’re not that far off and
it does appear that Ambrosius/Zaleski needed to scramble for some SBs. That being said, $23 for Young seems to be
more in line with a proven comparable such as Mike Cameron ($24 LABR draft
value) than a rook with only 70 ABs. I’m
very high on Young (geez, I have him in my keeper league for $9), and he’ll
need to rise in the batting order to earn this type of value (at press time,
appears Young is slated to bat 7th).
- Chris
Duffy, $17 ($16.68, .271/.320/.377 with 51 Runs and 32 SBs)
Again, our value is spot on with
Duffy’s LABR draft price, but even we don’t like our own cooking on this
one. This is the same guy who needed to
“find himself” in ’06 after being sent back to the minors and with McCutchen
and Nate McLouth (dubbed “McLousy” by one owner) and Matos and a cast of hundreds
lining up for ABs, we’re feeling something short of stable on a mid-teens bid…
be wary.
- Cliff
Floyd $5/Matt Murton $11 (Floyd $9.30, Murton $15.42)
Much like the LABR experts, we’re
expecting Floyd to be rear view mirror fodder at some point late in the first
half of the season… if not due to mediocrity, then because of injuries. Murton warrants attention in N.L. only
leagues – be sure to have him well placed on your draft sheets.
- Ryan
Braun $6/Tony Graffanino $4/Craig Counsell $1 ($9.89, $4.59, $3.86)
And so goes the Brew Ha’s 3B
situation. With Braun having “thrown
away” his chances to make the cut (very punny), and Bill Hall banished to the
OF, we will have to stomach a Graffanino/Counsell tandem at the hot corner for at
least a month or two. Yuck. We still think Braun will get the call sooner
than later. Note: the Brewers still seem committed to Braun at 3B, so don’t
expect Bill Hall to slide back to 3B any time soon.
- Kevin
Gregg $7Henry Owens $2/Matt Lindstrom $1/Taylor Tankersley $8/insert
player of choice here (Gregg $14.32, Owens $6.91, Lindstrom $1.17, Tank
$17.17, Kent Tekulve $1.23)
Unless Tank’s arm falls off, he may
quickly reclaim the job he’s yet to claim (uh… let me reread that last
sentence), but please… PLEASE… stay away from this situation in your draft and
just say NO. Our crystal ball tells us
that Gregg will gain the upper hand and run with the job for several months; and
yes, we understand that this is half faint praise and half wishful
thinking. It’s one thing to speculate on
a player in a fairly well defined competition, it’s another when 4 candidates,
potential trades, and your left-handed grandmother are in the hunt for a
job. Again, say NO!
As always, what do you think? Tell us at GM@baseballinsights.com or go to www.baseballinsights.com for more
information on more than 1,000 (and counting!) players.
