N.L. Value Leaders, 4/25/2007
By David Wysocky
One of the joys of basing player values on actual
statistical models versus gut feel (seemingly the way most roto
sites assess player values), is that you can hit the pause button at any point
in the season to understand who’s doing what and how they rank among their
peers.
With that in mind, we introduce our “Value Leaders” series
of articles, describing how much value, in traditional roto
dollars that is, each player has contributed to that point in the season. Take A-Rod for example. Our model tells us that he’s earned an
astounding $9.77 through 4/24, which if extrapolated over a 162 game season,
would yield an unheard performance of $87.93!
OK, so we don’t expect A-Rod to hit 5 HR’s
every week and the gravitational smackdown to earth
feeling that all roto owners feel will be due to
strike at several points during the season.
Still, the difference between what the player is actually delivering
versus what you predict the player will do, gives you a sense of when to “buy
low” or “sell high” based on under or over performance…. And that’s what we’re
all about at www.baseballinsights.com.
Without further adieu, here are our value leaders for
Pitchers through 4/24/2007:
Any surprises? Sure,
particularly since it’s April, and we’re seeing several jackrabbit starts from
pitchers that we expect to quickly reach their normal performance levels in the
near future. Braden Looper
for example, has posted a very mediocre 14K:8BB ratio
in 26 INN. despite
the 2.08 ERA and 1.08 WHIP. Be
wary. In fact, as we rate player
performance, Looper will qualify as a “Sell High”
candidate with another quality start and/or win.
Other pleasant surprises include John Maine and Rich Hill
(he of the incredible Aug./Sept. of ’06) and Tom Gorzelanny after his disastrous Spring Training. Of all the surprises, Ramon Ortiz stands out
as a sell high candidate after his brutal ’06 campaign in D.C. Pitchers sporting a 5.57 ERA with 230 hits
allowed in only 190+ INN. don’t
grow on trees… in fact they don’t grow at all.
We’ll be back to look at how players at other positions are
tracking to identify when to hold ‘em and when to
fold ‘em.
Good Wealth, Health and Pitching,
Dave Wysocky
GM@baseballinsights.com
www.baseballinsights.com
