A-Rod Setting Records in Fantasy as well as Reality - 4/27/07 

 

By David Wysocky

 

One of the joys of basing player values on actual statistical models versus gut feel (seemingly the way most roto sites assess player values), is that you can hit the pause button at any point in the season to understand who’s doing what and how they rank among their peers.

 

With that in mind, we introduce our “Value Leaders” series of articles, describing how much value, in traditional roto dollars that is, each player has contributed to that point in the season.  Take A-Rod for example.  Our model tells us that he’s earned an astounding $10.06 through 4/26, which if extrapolated over a 162 game season, would yield an unheard performance of $85.77!  OK, so we don’t expect A-Rod to hit 5 HR’s every week and the gravitational smackdown to earth feeling that all roto owners feel will be due to strike at several points during the season.  Still, the difference between what the player is actually delivering versus what you predict the player will do, gives you a sense of when to “buy low” or “sell high” based on under or over performance…. And that’s what we’re all about at www.baseballinsights.com.  

 

Without further adieu, here are our value leaders for third basemen through 4/24/2007:

 

Rank	Player	Current Value
1	Alex Rodriguez	$10.06
2	Chipper Jones	$4.45
3	B.J. Upton	$3.72
4	Miguel Cabrera	$3.61
5	Mike Lowell	$3.56
6	Aramis Ramirez	$3.24
7	Akinori Iwamura	$3.10
8	Melvin Mora	$2.54
9	Scott Rolen	$1.75
10	Aaron Boone	$1.73
11	David Wright	$1.55
12	Garrett Atkins	$1.55
13	Troy Glaus	$1.50
14	Mark Teahen	$1.50
15	Hank Blalock	$1.35
16	Maicer Izturis	$1.32
17	Morgan Ensberg	$1.30
18	Chad Tracy	$1.28
19	Aubrey Huff	$0.79
20	Eric Chavez	$0.71

 

 

Any surprises?  Sure, particularly since it’s April, and we’re seeing several jackrabbit starts from players that we expect to quickly reach their normal performance levels in the near future.  Mike Lowell for example, has posted a sweet .316/.357/.566 line with 4 HRs and 18 RBIs in only 20 games and as we rate player performance, Lowell may soon qualify as a “Sell High” candidate with another few weeks at this performance level.

 

We’ll be back to look at how players at other positions are tracking to identify when to hold ‘em and when to fold ‘em.

 

Good Wealth, Health and Pitching,

 

Dave Wysocky

GM@baseballinsights.com

www.baseballinsights.com