Market Movers for 5/20/2007
By David Wysocky
Go head, admit it.
You’re thinking of selling high/buying low on a few of your players, or
even better yet, other players that are ready to make their moves. Don’t pull the trigger until you read below
and if you have any questions, contact us at gm@baseballinsights.com on other
players of interest.
Buy Low
Who should we be targeting?
Dave Bush, P, Brew
Crew
As of 5/20: Predicted Value = $7.28, Actual Value = $4.05
The time is now to buy low on Bush. His Saturday loss at the hands of the
Twinkies (5 ER in 7+ INN.) leaves Bush with a portly 5.56 ERA in 56+ INN.
despite a 42K:9BB ratio. Yes, there are
some pundits who continue to hold out Bush as a rare oddity in that he can
seemingly carry a very high ERA despite a solid WHIP and K:BB ratio, but we’re
feeling pretty good given his lineup and the winning ways of the Brew Crew in
’07. Make a tender offer as soon as
possible.
Edwin Encarnacion,
3B, Reds
As of 5/20: Predicted Value = $5.94, Actual Value = $.65
With another 2-for-4 day on Sunday, EE is now batting .372
during his banishment to AAA Louisville and with Hamilton sidelined for at
least the next couple of days (or probably longer), we could see a one-way
ticket to Cincy in Edwin’s hands by late Sunday. The Reds can’t be satisfied with the
Murderer’s Row of Castro, Moeller, Hopper and Conine, so expect this buy low
window to last for a very short time.
Stephen Drew, SS,
Dbacks
As of 5/20: Predicted
Value = $4.58, Actual Value = $.88
Drew’s line of .245/.312/.325 is not what the Dbacks we’re
hoping for this season after his strong OPS in ’06 and unless there’s a more
serious injury lingering beneath the surface, we should expect Drew to start
stroking the ball in near future. That
being said, his value takes a significant hit leading off, so let’s hope that
Chris Young makes it back shortly from his second groin strain of the season.
Alex Gordon, 3B,
Royals
As of 5/20: Predicted Value = $5.15, Actual Value = $-1.79
Call it what you will, but Gordon is scuffling with a
.167/.290/.250 line with a mere 5 RBIs in 132 ABs. Ouch. Good news is that if you’re not the guy who
emptied your rookie loving wallet on draft day, you can probably scoop him up
at a greatly reduced price. Yes, he may
get sent down to Omaha
to ignite his bat, but I’m still expecting positive production when the year is
out. Buying low becomes even more
important for those of us in keeper leagues.
Ryan Howard, 1B,
Phillies
As of 5/20: Predicted
Value = $8.25, Actual Value = $1.84
Howard can be activated next week (5/25) and although it may
take him a little longer, he’s a prime candidate to be bought at fire sale
prices over the next week. Even when he
returns, we’re not expecting his quad to be fully healed and we still expect
him to underperform against the most if not all projections (including our
own). Still, he’s in a good lineup that
will provide him with plenty of Runs and RBIs and is worth owning in all
formats. Throw a line to your fellow
Howard owner and take a temperature reading.
Carlos Zambrano, P,
Cubs
As of 5/20: Predicted Value = $7.32, Actual Value = $2.73
(and going down!)
Zambrano had another single inning blow-up on Sunday against
the ChiSox, yielding 7 runs in the 7th INN. In fairness to Z, Neal Cotts did allow all 3
inherited runners to score, but with a 5.61 ERA and a 43K:31BB in 60+ INN., we
all have to be a little concerned that Zambrano’s inconsistency and lack of
middle inning command are going to take the usual toll on his numbers. Still, there’s a lot to like here, his Ks are
still reasonable, and the Cubs offense should be able to carry him to 14-15
wins by year end. Look for a deal here,
as your fellow Zambie owner may be more willing to listen than you think.
Sell High
Who should we be looking to move?
Josh Hamilton, OF,
Reds
As of 5/20: Predicted Value = $.56, Actual Value = $4.61
You tell me how long Hamilton
will be out, because the reports vary widely at this point. In any event, we may have lost the window to
sell high on Hamilton who’s posted a .261/.336/.521 line in 119 ABs with 8 HRs
and 3 SBs. His 25K:13BB is actually not
too bad, but can we really expect him to sustain his performance? Let someone else take the risk and if you
were the lucky guy holding the Hamilton
lottery ticket after your draft, cash it in and move onto the next
opportunity. Encarnacion will be back
sooner or later pushing Freel back to the OF and Hamilton back to spot starts – sell now!
Jamie Moyer, P,
Phillies
As of 5/20: Predicted Value = $3.69, Actual Value = $5.64
The time is right, if perhaps not slightly past the peak to
sell on Moyer. His WHIP still sits at a
very nice 1.27, but his ERA has made the trek north of 4, and we will only see
more balls find their way into the bleachers as the weather heats up. Moyer is not pitching too terribly over his
head, however, and our predicted ERA/WHIP are almost identical to his current
stats. Still, make this deal while you
can.
Jason Marquis, P,
Cubs
As of 5/20: Predicted
Value = $2.04, Actual Value = $8.48
Issuing a Sell High rating for Marquis. Although '06 (6.02
ERA in 194+ INN.) was not a
good representation of his career norms, his 4-1 record, 2.09 ERA run in
contrast to his
19K:13BB ratio in 38 INN. Sell high my friends or the Marquis de Sade will be
sure to
torture your ERA and WHIP.
Oliver Perez, P, Mets
Predicted Value as of
5/20, $2.06, Actual Value as of 5/20, $10.12
Have we entered the time machine back to 2004? Is Perez throwing in the high 90’s
again? Not quite on both counts,
although Perez has been very sharp the majority of the year and flat out has
great stats – 2.90 ERA, 1.09 WHIP with a 48K:16BB in 49+ INN. His fastball is hitting 93 MPH, his slider is
nasty as ever and we with only one exception, we haven’t seen that deer in the
headlights look he had over most of the past two seasons. He also has some strong mentorship from some
more senior pitchers, something he really lacked in Pittsburgh.
OK, now that you’ve heard that story, you have Oliver at a high
watermark right now… what do you do?
Sell, but sell to get real value, not just another flavor of the week.
For more information about your favorite players check us
out at www.baseballinsights.com
or reach out at gm@baseballinsights.com.
