Pitching Value Leaders - 5/21/2007

 

By David Wysocky

 

One of the joys of basing player values on actual statistical models versus gut feel (seemingly the way most roto sites assess player values), is that you can hit the pause button at any point in the season to understand who’s doing what and how they rank among their peers.

 

With that in mind, we continue our “Value Leaders” series of articles, describing how much value, in traditional roto dollars that is, each player has contributed to that point in the season.  The difference between what the player is actually delivering versus what you predict the player will do, gives you a sense of when to “buy low” or “sell high” based on under or over performance…. And that’s what we’re all about at www.baseballinsights.com.  

 

Without further adieu, here are our value leaders for Pitchers through 5/21//2007:

 

Rank	Player	Current Value
1	Jake Peavy	$12.06
2	Francisco Cordero	$11.99
3	Danny Haren	$11.76
4	Tim Hudson	$10.88
5	Jamie Shields	$10.78
6	Oliver Perez	$10.12
7	Roy Oswalt	$10.07
8	Josh Beckett	$10.05
9	Ted Lilly	$9.98
10	John Smoltz	$9.94
11	John Lackey	$9.85
12	Al Reyes	$9.85
13	David Weathers	$9.81
14	Jose Valverde	$9.80
15	Takashi Saito	$9.79
16	Cole Hamels	$9.76
17	Francisco Rodriguez	$9.11
18	C.C. Sabathia	$9.04
19	J.J. Putz	$8.61
20	Kelvim Escobar	$8.58

 

 

Any surprises?  Who thought Jose Valverde would rebound from his roadside breakdown in the middle of ’06?  Has Oliver Perez found a time machine back to 2004?  We’ve rated Perez as a “Sell High” despite the 2.90 ERA, sparkling 1.09 WHIP and near K per Inning.  Yes, having mentorship from Pedro and Glavine will make a difference, but we should see a sharp correction in his performance over the next few weeks… sell high.  Shields is another surprise as we’ve often said that he’s still unknown in the greater Tampa/St. Peter area.  With a few more wins he might just sit in the #3 position based on his sub-3 ERA and incredible 0.92 WHIP.  Tim Hudson has not stopped pitching well, yielding only 3 HRs in 70+ INN. and he appears to have regained the location and movement that kept his pitches up and hittable last year – don’t expect Hudson to slip significantly throughout the year and he should easily finish with a low to mid 3’s ERA.

David Weathers?  He’s been phenomenal, posting a 2.08 ERA and a 23K:4BB in 21+ INN.   Props to Al Reyes for running with the closer’s job in Tampa Bay (really St. Pete!) and Ted Lilly for dominating N.L. hitters.

 

We’ll be back to look at how players at other positions are tracking to identify when to hold ‘em and when to fold ‘em.

 

Good Wealth, Health and Pitching,

 

Dave Wysocky

GM@baseballinsights.com

www.baseballinsights.com