Market Movers for 6/10/2007
By David Wysocky
Go head, admit it.
You’re thinking of selling high/buying low on a few of your players, or
even better yet, other players that are ready to make their moves. Don’t pull the trigger until you read below
and if you have any questions, contact us at gm@baseballinsights.com on other
players of interest.
BUY LOW
Who should we be targeting?
Garrett Atkins,
3B, Rox
6/10 Predicted Value
= $11.80
6/10 Actual Value =
$2.15
Atkins went for $37 in my 5x5 N.L. only keeper league, and
we all know he’s created major heartburn for owners in all fantasy
formats. Atkins is beginning to hit,
posting a .324/.439/.529 line in his past 10 games with a 7BB:6K ratio and at
this point since most owners are still focusing on the painful overall picture,
look to buy at a significant discount.
Andruw Jones, OF,
Braves
6/10 Predicted Value
= $9.84
6/10 Actual Value =
$5.47
Jones is virtually money in the bank when it comes to
counting stats such as HRs, Runs and RBIs and his consistent track record
suggests he’ll continue to increase his output over the next 100 games to
approximate his normal performance levels.
Jones owners who are struggling in AVG. (Jones is at .229) are apt to
listen to a “he’s dragging down your AVG” story which when you think about it,
is completely true. Test the waters to
see if Jones can be had at a nice discount.
Vernon Wells, OF, Blue Jays
6/10 Predicted Value
= $12.24
6/10 Actual Value =
$5.03
Didn’t see this one coming, particularly since other than a
flu bug or two, we really don’t have any injuries of significance to talk
about. His .250/.308/.399 line is
painful to Wells owners who routinely drafted him in the second round as well
as for those of us in auction formats spent well into the $20’s with a
smattering of $30 bids. 5 SBs and 34
runs scored hint at the underlying value and expect a resurgence and expect it
shortly – buy now with Wells owners who are tired of the mediocrity.
Alfredo Amezaga,
OF, Marlins
6/10 Predicted Value
= $4.03
6/10 Actual Value =
$2.16
Despite the fact that Amezaga’s actual value is less than
what we expected, he’s a small yet valuable chip in deep N.L. leagues where SBs
are difficult to find. Even with his
0-for-5 on Saturday, he’s posted a .286/.405/.343 line is his last 10 games
with 3 SBs and 8 runs which add to your bottom line. We’re not sure that even when (or if) De Aza
returns, he’ll be able to dislodge Amezaga who has locked up ABs against
RHP. Very cheap source of steals.
SELL HIGH
Who should we be looking to move?
Alex Gonzalez, SS,
Reds
Actual Value = $5.21
Predicted Value = $3.93
OK, so we kinda had some foresight to realize that A-Gonzo
would regain his power stroke in ’07, but to have 11 HRs at the 60 game mark is
significantly ahead of schedule.
Gonzalez has been very streaky and has had a very difficult
two games since returning from a slight hammy injury. Remember that his lifetime AVG. is .247 and
as he settles back to 7th slot in the Reds lineup, he’ll have
difficult scoring runs. Still, no
complaints from us product Gonzo owners although now is the time to cash in on
his power surge while he’s still overproducing.
Chris Sampson, P,
Astros
Actual Value = $7.82
Predicted Value =
$2.54
Those of us Sampson owners who decided to bench him against
the WhiteSox on Friday were left feeling denied by another solid Sampson start
where he against yielded 3 or less runs while squeezing just enough offense out
of the punchless ‘Stros offense to escape with his 6th win. Who would’ve thunk it? Sampson’s 3.36 ERA and 1.28 WHIP is supported
by a less than stellar 29K:19BB ratio in 69+ INN. but he has such good command
of his repertoire that offenses have yet to consistently square up on his
pitches. We predict more success for
Sampson although not at his current levels – an ERA much closer to 4 and only
4-5 wins over the remainder of the year would still qualify Sampson as a major
surprise in ’07. Those in needs of
pitching can easily be sold on his top line stats especially given Houston’s struggling
offense (“this guy is so good, he can pitch past their offense”). Consider a sell if the price is right.
Ken Griffey, OF,
Reds
Actual Value = $8.76
Predicted Value =
$5.15
The fact that Griffey has posted a .285/.387/.555 line with
15 HRs is almost as surprising as the fact that he’s played in 57 of the Reds
first 63 games. His 29K:35BB is also
surprising given his 78K:39BB in ’06 and 93K:54BB in ’05. Given his injury history and sudden and
significant improvements in performance as compared to the last two years, we’d
be looking to sell high while his value is still heading north. He’s a sprained something or other or “loose
body” away from reaching your bench at this point – make the trade and enjoy
full value.
Day Traders:
What is this you ask?
For those of us who like to speculate on a more daily basis, I give you
a new segment entitled Day Traders which is designed to target short-term buys
and sells based on recent player performances.
Ideas to consider:
Jonathon
Broxton, P, LAD - Despite the blowup earlier in the week,
he still remains a good bet for some save-sharing given Saito’s strained
hammy. See if he’s available in your
league.
Brett Myers, P, Phils
- Myers will be back shortly and
there’s an outside chance he’ll build back to the starting rotation given
Garcia’s exit stage left despite his proclamation that he wouldn’t switch roles
a second time during the season and the fact that Flash Gordon is still a
question mark at the back of the bullpen (assuming he comes back as expected). In either case, if Myers has been dumped in
your league, look to grab him as he should settle back into the closer’s role
where he was lights out before his…er… shoulder grabbing episode.
Jim Edmonds,
OF, STL – Just as we impugned his baseball integrity, Edmonds posts a .300/.333/.650 line with 3
HRs and 7 RBIs in his last 10 games.
He’s heating up and could still post low 20 HRs totals.
***********************************
Next week we’ll take a look at the progress of our May
Market Movers to see if they’re moving in the predicted direction. For more information about your favorite players
check us out at www.baseballinsights.com
or reach out at gm@baseballinsights.com.
