Baseballinsights Player Value Leaders for 2007
By David Wysocky
Until Sunday’s 0-for-5, Hanley Ramirez had actually
overtaken Alex Rodriguez as the top producing fantasy player for 2007 as
measured in traditional roto dollars given a 5x5 mixed league format. Hanley who?
Yes, the same Hanley (as if there was more than one) who was traded by
the Sox oh so many years ago (just 2) for Josh Beckett and Mike Lowell and who
took a John Maine fastball to the wrist on Saturday which fueled a tasty
brew-ha between the Mets and Marlins.
First, we’ll tip our cap to A-Rod who truly enjoyed an
incredible statistical year. Those of us
who dug deep in the wallet at draft day were rewarded with the exception of
some New York
based leagues where A-Rod literally went for high 40’s in some drafts (ouch!).
But Ramirez’ line bears some analysis.
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CURRENT STATS
|
|
|
G
|
AB
|
R
|
H
|
2B
|
3B
|
HR
|
RBI
|
BB
|
K
|
SB
|
CS
|
AVG
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OBP
|
SLG
|
OPS
|
|
Through 09/30/07
|
154
|
639
|
125
|
212
|
48
|
6
|
29
|
81
|
52
|
95
|
51
|
14
|
.332
|
.386
|
.562
|
.948
|
|
2007 PREDICTED
STATS
|
|
Predicted Value
$35.41
|
157
|
641
|
110
|
183
|
44
|
12
|
20
|
68
|
59
|
119
|
49
|
11
|
.285
|
.346
|
.485
|
.831
|
|
|
|
|
Producing a whopping $46.22 is nothing short of remarkable,
especially based on his $25-$30 asking price in most drafts but it’s the 83
XBHs that separate Ramirez from Reyes and the incredible .332 AVG that puts him
in a different category from J-Ro. At 6’
3” 200 Lbs., the 23 year-old Ramirez could easily add bulk through his mid to
late 20’s, bolstering his power, yet sapping his SB abilities and it will be
interesting to see when his transition from 30-30 to 40-20 status begins to
take shape. Until then, Ramirez owners
should enjoy healthy returns, particularly those that nabbed him in long-term
keeper leagues after he was traded to Florida.
For those Mets fans out there, Jose Reyes, AKA “The Most
Exciting Slacker in Baseball” still managed to crack the top 5 despite a weak
second half and an even weaker September (.211/.294/.359 with 7 SBs and 6 CSs). Some day he’ll learn to give a real effort
on every play and we fully expect 5+ $40 seasons over the next 10 years.
Other surprises?
David Wright fulfilled his 30-30 destiny earlier than expected, but did
anyone see Ordonez, 3 years removed from knee surgery, producing a .362 AVG,
1.029 OPS and a $38 dollar season?
Phillips goes from an organizational discard to a 30-30 monster in the
span of one year despite the .333 OBP and putrid 109K:33BB. Although he may be capable of sustaining this
performance at the tender age of 26, he’s reached his ceiling unless he can
improve his plate discipline.
Although Holliday’s for real (check out his home/road
splits), Mr. Byrnes cannot, I repeat, cannot be counted on for 50+ SBs in
2008. I know, you’re saying that he swiped 13 bases
in September hitting predominantly in the middle of the order, but if there was
a Brady Anderson equivalent in the SBs category, you’ve got your poster child.
Crawford… check.
Peavy… check. Suzuki… check. Putz?
40 Saves, microscopic ERA/WHIP and 82 Ks across 71+ Inn. place him in
the top 10. Much like Wright, Beckett
fulfills his expectations especially after last year’s 5+ ERA “transitional”
year to Boston
and we fully expect Brandon Webb to be a consistent top 20 performer for 5-7
more years to come.
Enjoy the list and please visit us at www.baseballinsights.com to access
the complete index of 2007 player values.
Questions, comments, criticisms?
Email us at gm@baseballinsights.com.
Good Wealth, Health and Pitching,
Dave Wysocky
GM@baseballinsights.com
www.baseballinsights.com
