Santana on the Move and So is his Fantasy Value…

 

By David Wysocky

 

2008 Player Guidance:

Craig Monroe pickups backup AB's across all 3 OF positions and DH, Jason Pridie gets a one-way ticket to Rochester and Gomez gets first crack at most of the ABs in CF.  Some may predict that Monroe, at close to 4M, will eat most of Kubel's ABs, but I don't see this happening given Kubel hits from the left side, is 25, and has aced AAA (how about .343/.398/560 in 2004 as a 22 year-old!).  Let's face it, Gomez is the centerpiece of the deal for Minnesota and although Guerra is VERY promising and somewhat projectable at 18… well… he's still only 18!

 

A staff of Baker, Slowey, Bonser, Liriano and possibly Glen Perkins will surely tap into the Twinkies sick leave benefit and although Humber will most likely start in AAA, I would not be surprised to see him before the All-Star break given the right opportunity.  Humber pitched well in AA Binghamton in 2006 and adjusted well to AAA New Orleans, but the extra outings in Rochester should help him better prep for his trip to Minnesota.  Ahhh… Mr. Mulvey.  We like Mulvey who demonstrated solid control, a strong WHIP (1.24) and the ability to keep the ball in the park (only 4HRs in 151 INN.).  Although Humber is regarded as having a higher upside, Mulvey may be the better bet to have a longer career.

 

Guerra… we’ll see you in 2-3 years, so please, please, don’t ask us to predict ’08 stats/value for Deolis!

 

Now for the guidance on value changes:

 

Johan Santana - BBI Alert	Team	G	GS	CG	SHO	IP	H	ER	HR	BB	SO	W	L	ERA	WHIP
Predicted Value $34.63	Twins	34	34	3	2	221.1	180	76	25	54	229	18	11	3.09	1.05
Predicted Value $35.85	Mets	34	34	3	2	218.0	175	70	22	51	228	19	10	2.89	1.04
Increase of $1.22

 

No DH?  A league that hasn’t seen him?  Expect a nice, but not overly dramatic drop in ERA with an additional win or 2 given the Mets potent offense.

 

Carlos Gomez - BBI Alert	Team	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Predicted Value $8.17	Mets	83	212	23	55	6	4	3	22	12	49	17	5	0.259	0.303	0.367	0.671
Predicted Value $11.35	Twins	120	371	43	95	13	5	5	30	22	69	24	6	0.256	0.301	0.358	0.660
Increase of $3.18

 

Gomez’ value increases because of the increased ABs which lead to more SBs, but his core metrics are remarkably similar given his age (just turned 22) and experience (only 125 Major League ABs).  Bottomline, Gomez is not ready to be written at the top of the lineup card and we hope the Twins warm him up toward the lower half of the order before exposing his low OBP in front of Mauer, Morneau and Young.

 

Craig Monroe - BBI Alert	Team	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Predicted Value $9.59	Twins	126	432	59	109	24	2	15	66	30	112	3	1	0.252	0.302	0.421	0.723
Predicted Value $6.81	Post Trade	112	341	45	85	17	1	12	49	22	90	2	1	0.249	0.299	0.411	0.709
Decrease of $2.78

 

Never liked the 4-to-1 K:BB ratio, or the resulting sub-.300 OBP, but now that his OPS is loitering around .700, it may be time to call the Orix Wave.

 

Jason Kubel - BBI Alert	Team	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Predicted Value $17.04	Twins	142	487	66	138	34	2	16	81	51	88	8	2	0.283	0.350	0.459	0.810
Predicted Value $14.91	Post Trade	134	445	58	125	29	1	15	72	44	79	7	2	0.281	0.348	0.452	0.800
Decrease of $2.13

 

Unfortunately, unless Monroe is traded (and we’re not sure who would want to pickup his 3.85M price tag), he’ll starting eating into Kubel’s ABs although not many as we would think for the reasons mentioned at the top of the article.

 

We’ll take a look at Mr. Mulvey in an upcoming article, so stay tuned.

 

Questions?  Comments?  Please contact Dave Wysocky at gm@baseballinsights.com