Dear Baseball Insighters,
Fresh off the presses, we present the 2008 BaseballInsights Rookie
Rankings with some differences you might not see in your Roto magazine of
choice. First, we’ve included the picks
in a matrix that you can customize to your liking (more on this in a
moment). Second, although our rankings focus
on whether players will have an impact in 2008, we also attempt to balance
short-term value with longer term potential.
Carlos Carrasco is a great case in point in that although he has tremendous
upside in 2010-11, which is a long-term buy even in most keeper leagues, he
simply shouldn’t be much of a factor until 2009, with significant growth in
2010 and ’11. Third, we’re sharing our
high-level logic as to how we rank the rooks which is based on four key factors
(all on a 1-10 scale, 10 being the best), all of which are weight adjusted as
follows:
1) Opportunity (weighted
25%) – represents a player’s chance of “getting the call” to The Show.
2) Contribution (weighted 35%) – represents
the impact a player will have (once called up) in any of the 10 statistical
categories generally used in 5x5 leagues.
Let’s face it, some prospects really won’t add measurable value in any
one statistical category…. ever!
3) Playing Time (weighted 30%) – once the
player is called up, how often will they play?
Will Colby Rasmus sit vs. LHPs once he’s called up? Will Manny Parra start or will he be pushed
to the bullpen, reducing his opportunity to rack up K’s and Wins?
4) Ceiling (weighted 10%) – very subjective
measure of the player’s long-term potential (think 3-5 years out). Although the focus of the
BBI rankings are on impact for 2008, we still want to include a balancing
factor for player potential.
The results are a bit different than what we’ve seen
elsewhere – Soto is well positioned toward the top of our list, not because we
think he’s the 2008 version of Ryan Braun, but because he has a great
combination of opportunity, ability and can make “Roto friendly” statistical
contributions (HRs, RBIs) that make a difference. You won’t see Moustakas (19), Vitters (18),
or Wieters (21) on our list as they should not make any impact in 2008 (no, not
even Wieters).
Feel free to alter the weightings for you own purposes,
based on different league formats and dynamics.
We’ve had “Insighters” in deep keeper leagues tweak the “Ceiling”
weighting to focus more on long-term prospects, adding back in the Moustakas’,
Vitters’ and Wieters’ of the world.
Please “spice to taste” as I like to say!
You won’t see Fukudome, Kuroda or Yabuta on this list as we
don’t think these are rookies in the traditional sense (check out their player
profiles for predicted performances/values).
There may also be a player or two that violates MLB’s definition of
rookie eligibility and we understand that we have bent and/or broken some of
the rules because we can…;)
Enjoy and by all means let us know what you think at GM@baseballinsights.com and please
feel free to share with your Roto Family.
As one of our many shameless plugs, we have a RotoChat scheduled on
Wednesday at 9PM EST to talk about the Rookie Rankings to improve the overall
guidance heading into peak drafting season.
Access our RotoChat tool here: http://www.baseballinsights.net/curve_ball?curveball_id=27
Good Health, Wealth and Pitching,
Dave Wysocky
GM BaseballInsights
gm@baseballinsights.com
2008 BBI
Rookie Rankings
|
|
|
|
|
|
Weightings
|
0.25
|
0.35
|
0.3
|
0.1
|
|
Ranking
|
Player
|
Age
|
Position
|
Team
|
Score
|
Opportunity
|
Contribution
|
Playing Time
|
Ceiling
|
|
1
|
Joba Chamberlain
|
22
|
P
|
NYY
|
9.55
|
10
|
9
|
10
|
9
|
|
2
|
Geovany Soto
|
25
|
C
|
CHN
|
9.15
|
10
|
9
|
9
|
8
|
|
3
|
Evan Longoria
|
22
|
3B
|
TB
|
9.10
|
9
|
9
|
9
|
10
|
|
4
|
Clay Buchholz
|
23
|
P
|
BOS
|
9.05
|
9
|
8
|
10
|
10
|
|
5
|
Daric Barton
|
22
|
1B
|
OAK
|
8.80
|
10
|
8
|
9
|
8
|
|
6
|
Cameron Maybin
|
21
|
OF
|
FLA
|
8.65
|
9
|
8
|
9
|
9
|
|
7
|
Franklin Morales
|
22
|
P
|
COL
|
8.55
|
9
|
8
|
9
|
8
|
|
8
|
Colby Rasmus
|
21
|
OF
|
STL
|
8.45
|
8
|
9
|
8
|
9
|
|
9
|
Homer Bailey
|
22
|
P
|
CIN
|
8.15
|
9
|
6
|
10
|
8
|
|
10
|
Manny Parra
|
25
|
P
|
MIL
|
8.00
|
8
|
8
|
8
|
8
|
|
11
|
Jacob Ellsbury
|
24
|
OF
|
BOS
|
7.90
|
8
|
8
|
8
|
7
|
|
12
|
Jay Bruce
|
21
|
OF
|
CIN
|
7.70
|
6
|
8
|
8
|
10
|
|
13
|
Andy LaRoche
|
24
|
3B
|
LA
|
7.60
|
8
|
8
|
7
|
7
|
|
14
|
Jordan Schafer
|
21
|
OF
|
ATL
|
7.55
|
6
|
7
|
9
|
9
|
|
15
|
Jensen Lewis
|
24
|
P
|
CLE
|
7.55
|
10
|
5
|
9
|
6
|
|
16
|
Ian Kennedy
|
23
|
P
|
NYY
|
7.50
|
8
|
6
|
9
|
7
|
|
17
|
Ross Detwiler
|
22
|
P
|
WAS
|
7.45
|
7
|
6
|
9
|
9
|
|
18
|
Troy Patton
|
22
|
P
|
BAL
|
7.40
|
8
|
6
|
9
|
6
|
|
19
|
Johnny Cueto
|
22
|
P
|
CIN
|
7.30
|
5
|
7
|
9
|
9
|
|
20
|
Neil Walker
|
22
|
3B
|
PIT
|
7.30
|
7
|
7
|
8
|
7
|
|
21
|
Joey Votto
|
24
|
1B
|
CIN
|
7.25
|
8
|
7
|
7
|
7
|
|
22
|
Jeff Niemann
|
25
|
P
|
TB
|
7.25
|
7
|
6
|
9
|
7
|
|
23
|
Matt LaPorta
|
23
|
3B
|
MIL
|
7.25
|
5
|
8
|
8
|
8
|
|
24
|
Radhames Liz
|
24
|
P
|
BAL
|
7.25
|
7
|
6
|
9
|
7
|
|
25
|
Gio Gonzalez
|
22
|
P
|
OAK
|
7.25
|
5
|
8
|
8
|
8
|
|
26
|
Chris Perez
|
23
|
P
|
STL
|
7.20
|
9
|
5
|
8
|
8
|
|
27
|
Nick Adenhart
|
21
|
P
|
LAA
|
7.15
|
6
|
7
|
8
|
8
|
|
28
|
Wladimir Balentien
|
24
|
OF
|
SEA
|
7.15
|
5
|
8
|
8
|
7
|
|
29
|
Wade Davis
|
22
|
P
|
TB
|
7.10
|
6
|
6
|
9
|
8
|
|
30
|
Andrew McCutchen
|
21
|
OF
|
PIT
|
7.05
|
7
|
6
|
8
|
8
|
|
31
|
Jair Jurrjens
|
22
|
P
|
ATL
|
7.05
|
6
|
7
|
8
|
7
|
|
32
|
Anthony Swarzak
|
22
|
P
|
MIN
|
7.05
|
6
|
7
|
8
|
7
|
|
33
|
Francisco Cruceta
|
26
|
P
|
DET
|
7.00
|
8
|
6
|
8
|
5
|
|
34
|
Kevin Mulvey
|
23
|
P
|
MIN
|
6.95
|
7
|
6
|
8
|
7
|
|
35
|
Nick Blackburn
|
26
|
P
|
MIN
|
6.95
|
7
|
6
|
8
|
7
|
|
36
|
Glen Perkins
|
25
|
P
|
MIN
|
6.90
|
8
|
6
|
7
|
7
|
|
37
|
J.R. Towles
|
24
|
C
|
HOU
|
6.85
|
8
|
5
|
8
|
7
|
|
38
|
Brandon Jones
|
24
|
OF
|
ATL
|
6.85
|
6
|
7
|
7
|
8
|
|
39
|
Brian Duensing
|
25
|
P
|
MIN
|
6.85
|
6
|
7
|
8
|
5
|
|
40
|
Mark Lowe
|
25
|
P
|
SEA
|
6.80
|
8
|
6
|
7
|
6
|
|
41
|
Brandon Wood
|
23
|
SS
|
ANA
|
6.75
|
6
|
7
|
7
|
7
|
|
42
|
Colin Balester
|
22
|
P
|
WAS
|
6.75
|
6
|
5
|
9
|
8
|
|
43
|
Carlos Gonzalez
|
22
|
OF
|
OAK
|
6.70
|
6
|
6
|
8
|
7
|
|
44
|
David Price
|
22
|
P
|
TB
|
6.70
|
4
|
6
|
9
|
9
|
|
45
|
Jason Pridie
|
24
|
OF
|
MIN
|
6.65
|
6
|
7
|
7
|
6
|
|
46
|
Reid Brignac
|
22
|
SS
|
TB
|
6.65
|
4
|
7
|
8
|
8
|
|
47
|
Jeff Clement
|
24
|
C
|
SEA
|
6.60
|
5
|
7
|
7
|
8
|
|
48
|
Chase Headley
|
24
|
3B
|
SDP
|
6.60
|
4
|
6
|
9
|
8
|
|
49
|
Ross Ohlendorf
|
25
|
P
|
NYY
|
6.55
|
7
|
6
|
7
|
6
|
|
50
|
Luke Hochevar
|
24
|
P
|
KC
|
6.50
|
7
|
5
|
8
|
6
|
|
51
|
Ian Stewart
|
25
|
3B
|
COL
|
6.50
|
5
|
7
|
7
|
7
|
|
52
|
Alan Horne
|
25
|
P
|
NYY
|
6.50
|
7
|
5
|
8
|
6
|
|
53
|
Jack Egbert
|
25
|
P
|
CHA
|
6.45
|
5
|
6
|
8
|
7
|
|
54
|
Josh Roenicke
|
25
|
P
|
CIN
|
6.40
|
5
|
7
|
7
|
6
|
|
55
|
Felipe Paulino
|
24
|
P
|
HOU
|
6.40
|
7
|
5
|
8
|
5
|
|
56
|
Jaime Garcia
|
22
|
P
|
STL
|
6.35
|
6
|
5
|
8
|
7
|
|
57
|
Steve Pearce
|
25
|
OF
|
PIT
|
6.35
|
6
|
7
|
6
|
6
|
|
58
|
Max Scherzer
|
23
|
P
|
AZ
|
6.35
|
7
|
6
|
6
|
7
|
|
59
|
Greg Reynolds
|
23
|
P
|
COL
|
6.35
|
5
|
6
|
8
|
6
|
|
60
|
Yorman Bazardo
|
23
|
P
|
DET
|
6.35
|
8
|
5
|
7
|
5
|
|
61
|
Matt Maloney
|
24
|
P
|
CIN
|
6.25
|
5
|
6
|
8
|
5
|
|
62
|
Ben Francisco
|
26
|
OF
|
CLE
|
6.25
|
6
|
7
|
6
|
5
|
|
63
|
Eric Hurley
|
22
|
P
|
TEX
|
6.25
|
6
|
5
|
8
|
6
|
|
64
|
Clayton Kershaw
|
20
|
P
|
LAD
|
6.15
|
3
|
6
|
8
|
9
|
|
65
|
Kevin Hart
|
25
|
P
|
CHI
|
6.15
|
6
|
5
|
8
|
5
|
|
66
|
Matt Antonelli
|
23
|
2B
|
SD
|
6.15
|
5
|
6
|
7
|
7
|
|
67
|
Nolan Reimold
|
24
|
OF
|
BAL
|
6.15
|
5
|
6
|
7
|
7
|
|
68
|
Gaby Hernandez
|
22
|
P
|
FLA
|
6.10
|
5
|
5
|
8
|
7
|
|
69
|
Delwyn Young
|
26
|
OF
|
LAD
|
6.10
|
5
|
7
|
6
|
6
|
|
70
|
Aaron Laffey
|
23
|
P
|
CLE
|
6.05
|
8
|
5
|
6
|
5
|
|
71
|
Greg Golson
|
22
|
OF
|
PHI
|
6.05
|
5
|
6
|
7
|
6
|
|
72
|
Nate Schierholtz
|
24
|
OF
|
SF
|
6.05
|
5
|
6
|
7
|
6
|
|
73
|
Adam Miller
|
23
|
P
|
CLE
|
6.00
|
7
|
5
|
6
|
7
|
|
74
|
Jonathan Meloan
|
23
|
P
|
LAD
|
6.00
|
6
|
6
|
6
|
6
|
|
75
|
Chris Volstad
|
21
|
P
|
FLA
|
5.90
|
6
|
4
|
8
|
6
|
|
76
|
Chuck Lofgren
|
22
|
P
|
CLE
|
5.75
|
4
|
5
|
8
|
6
|
|
77
|
Carlos Carrasco
|
21
|
P
|
PHI
|
5.70
|
3
|
5
|
8
|
8
|
|
78
|
Lance Broadway
|
24
|
P
|
CHA
|
5.70
|
6
|
4
|
8
|
4
|
|
79
|
Adam Russell
|
25
|
P
|
CLE
|
5.70
|
6
|
4
|
8
|
4
|
|
80
|
Sean Gallagher
|
22
|
P
|
CHI
|
5.65
|
5
|
4
|
8
|
6
|
|
81
|
Mike Constanzo
|
24
|
3B
|
HOU
|
5.65
|
5
|
6
|
6
|
5
|
|
82
|
Phillip Humber
|
25
|
P
|
MIN
|
5.60
|
5
|
5
|
7
|
5
|
|
83
|
Chin-Lung Hu
|
24
|
SS
|
LAD
|
5.55
|
4
|
5
|
7
|
7
|
|
84
|
Brian Bixler
|
25
|
SS
|
PIT
|
5.30
|
5
|
5
|
6
|
5
|
|
85
|
Justin Maxwell
|
24
|
OF
|
WAS
|
5.20
|
4
|
6
|
5
|
6
|
|
86
|
Brent Lillibridge
|
24
|
SS
|
ATL
|
5.15
|
4
|
5
|
6
|
6
|
|
87
|
Jason Jaramillo
|
25
|
C
|
PHI
|
5.15
|
7
|
4
|
5
|
5
|
|
88
|
Jed Lowrie
|
24
|
SS
|
BOS
|
5.15
|
4
|
5
|
6
|
6
|
|
89
|
Juan Gutierrez
|
24
|
P
|
HOU
|
5.10
|
6
|
4
|
6
|
4
|
|
90
|
John Bowker
|
24
|
OF
|
SF
|
5.05
|
4
|
5
|
6
|
5
|
|
91
|
Emilio Bonifacio
|
23
|
2B/SS
|
AZ
|
5.00
|
5
|
5
|
5
|
5
|
|
92
|
Wade LeBlanc
|
23
|
P
|
SD
|
5.00
|
4
|
4
|
7
|
5
|
|
93
|
Tyler Colvin
|
22
|
OF
|
CHI
|
4.70
|
3
|
5
|
5
|
7
|
|
94
|
Chris Getz
|
24
|
2B
|
CHA
|
4.70
|
4
|
4
|
6
|
5
|
|
95
|
Brett Gardner
|
24
|
P
|
NYY
|
4.50
|
3
|
5
|
5
|
5
|
|
96
|
Eugenio Velez
|
26
|
OF
|
SF
|
4.40
|
4
|
4
|
5
|
5
|
