2008 Value Picks…. Sleepers Need Not Apply

 

Sleepers do not exist. 

 

There are always going to be those unexplainable seasons such as L-Gon’s 57 HRs or Carl Pavano’s

18 Wins (snicker, snicker), but in this information age where you don’t have to wait for the USA Today

truck to restock the newspaper machines at 5:15am (yes, I did this once…only once…. I swear… really),

there are few true “out of nowhere” players that wake up and bring home the numbers (although I always

thought Roberto Mejia and Geronimo Pena were going to take that quantum leap).  Ahhh, but there is a

secret stash of “Value Picks”, or players that could very well out produce (or “overperform” in our

investment banking lingo) their cost at the draft table.

 

For those of us in N.L./A.L. only leagues or large mixed leagues that swim in the deep end of the player

pool, we’re issuing guidance on 10 players that will “outperform” their draft values based on BBIs expected

dollar performance (available on our website).

 

Outperform:

 

Carlos Quentin, OF, White Sox

2008 PREDICTED STATS

Carlos Quentin OF G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS AVG OBP SLG OPS Predicted Value $9.02 119 387 47 103 23 2 12 50 39 83 4 3 .266 .344 .428 .773

 

 

 

 

 

Quentin is showing up for a just a handful of beads in some roto outlets and we’re betting the over that

he’ll produce $9 plus and will have a mini-breakthrough of sorts in Chicago.  We understand the injury

profile, but it’s betting on players like Quentin, at the right price, that make the push in the standings. 

He should be available for $3-$5 in some drafts.

 

 

Kevin Frandsen, 2B/3B, Giants

2008 PREDICTED STATS

Kevin Frandsen, 2B G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS AVG OBP SLG OPS Predicted Value $8.67 117 312 32 88 15 2 7 38 28 34 7 3 .282 .345 .410 .756

 

Frandsen is competing with Durham for the 2B job and although we think Durham will start at 2B,

Frandsen will pickup AB’s at both 2B and 3B and should roll north of the 300 ABs indicated in our

projection.  For those of us who bargain hunt, a $3-$4 buy of Frandsen could pay nice dividends.

 

 

Carlos Marmol, Cubs, P

PREDICTED STATS

Carlos Marmol, P G GS CG SHO IP H ER HR BB SO W L SV HLD BLSV ERA WHIP Predicted Value $20.12 67 0 0 0 74.2 60 22 4 35 90 5 3 22 0 5 3.34 1.24

 

Yes, Marmol will most likely lose the closer competition during Spring Training, but we expect his nearest

Competition Kerry Wood, to be displaced by May/June due to injuries or due to general wear and tear in

snapping off curveballs on consecutive days.  Marmol/Howry will take up the slack, but expect Marmol,

unlike last year, to get first crack at the remaining saves.  With an amazing $20 projected performance, how

high will he go in most drafts?  $8?  Pounce.

 

 

Julio Lugo, Red Sox, SS

2008 PREDICTED STATS

Julio Lugo, SS G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS AVG OBP SLG OPS Predicted Value $20.24 150 562 82 151 33 5 11 63 44 86 29 6 .268 .322 .403 .726

 

 

 

 

 

No miracles here, just a decent rebound based on more consistent play across both halves of the season. 

Production and Runs should increase, SBs will remain strong, prompting a mid-teens bid in most leagues. 

He should outperform and there should be no mention of Jed Lowrie throughout the season.

 

Stephen Drew, Dbacks, SS

2008 PREDICTED STATS

Stephen Drew, SS G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS AVG OBP SLG OPS Predicted Value $18.56 150 521 74 148 27 5 18 68 67 92 12 1 .284 .367 .458 .826

 

We all know that Drew dramatically underperformed last year and there will many drafters still leery

of a 230-something hitting SS, who despite his pedigree, doesn’t seem to do any one thing exceptionally

well.   As we say in Jersey, “Fugghedaboutit”.  Drew will improve in virtually all categories and is

capable of 15 SBs and 20 HRs… this year.  He should eventually settle in the 2 or 3-hole, but regardless

of where he hits… he should hit.  He’ll go for $10-$13 in most drafts, $15 on the high side – expect him

to outperform the asking price.

 

Wily Mo Pena, Nats, OF

2008 PREDICTED STATS

Wily Mo Pena, OF G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS AVG OBP SLG OPS Predicted Value $16.01 132 498 64 135 23 1 26 71 41 139 5 2 .271 .327 .477 .805

 

 

 

 

 

Like a moth to a flame or Jim Bowden to a toolsy outfielder, I’ll be looking for Pena at the draft table.

 

Unlike many outlets projecting 350-375 platoon ABs, we’re projecting Mo-P for close to 500 AB’s and

with 1,400 AB’s under his belt despite being only 26, expect a solid step forward.  He’s commanding

less than $10 in many early drafts and at a $16 expected performance, we see a bargain in the making.  

Many anticipate Elijah “Mortimer” Dukes to  steal some time, and although it could happen, it’s important

to note that both players hit from the right side (negating the benefit of a platoon) and that Pena was signed to a

2-year deal in the off-season.

 

Brendan Harris, 2B, Twins

2008 PREDICTED STATS

Brendan Harris, 2B/SS  G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS AVG OBP SLG OPS Predicted Value $14.36 141 538 75 151 33 2 14 67 44 101 5 2 .280 .337 .427 .765

 

Harris is entering his age 27 year having taken a significant step forward last year in St. Pete (yes, the

Rays actually play in St. Pete) producing a respectable .286/.343/.434 line.  I understand that this may

not get the proverbial juices flowing for many of us, but it’s the Brendan Harris’ of the world that separate

winning teams from middle-of-the-packers.  No, there’s nothing in Harris’ minor league resume

that suggests he’ll blow out his predicted value, but if you can cough up $8-$9 for his services, you

should see a nice return.

 

Rickie Weeks, 2B, Brewers

2008 PREDICTED STATS

Richie Weeks, 2B G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS AVG OBP SLG OPS Predicted Value $25.67 141 512 105 140 28 8 18 71 86 138 29 5 .273 .377 .464 .842

 

 

 

 

 

Weeks is a classic high-risk, high-reward player but we’re guessing that his 2007 season and more specifically,

his overall injury profile, will suppress his value on draft day.  I don’t think you’ll have to dig deep for

Weeks and the upside, particularly with Weeks leading off ahead of Braun, Fielder and Cameron, is quite tasty.  

We’ve seen Weeks draft in the mid-teens and as high as $20 in some mixed leagues, and we’ll take the

over that he outperforms these numbers.

 

Enjoy and by all means let us know what you think at GM@baseballinsights.com and please feel free to

share with your Roto Family.  If you want some real-time talk, catch us on RotoChat which is accessible at:

 

http://www.baseballinsights.net/curve_ball?curveball_id=27 

 

Good Health, Wealth and Pitching,

 

Dave Wysocky

GM BaseballInsights

gm@baseballinsights.com