2008 Value Picks Part
2…. Sleepers Need Not Apply
We say again…sleepers do not exist.
It’s Monday morning and for those of us on the East Coast,
it’s generally cold, dark and miserable and we’d rather be
talking baseball then heading out
for our morning commute. To make it even
worse, we have several more months of winter
to deal with. Thankfully, Spring Training is in full tilt
and we’ll have game action and more pulled hammies and “tweaks” to
report in just a few days.
To help bridge the gap, here’s our second installment of
“Value Picks”, our secret stash of “Value Picks”, or players that
could very well out produce (or
“overperform” in our investment banking lingo”) their cost at the draft table. For those of
us in N.L./A.L. only leagues or
large mixed leagues that swim in the deep end of the player pool, we’re issuing
guidance on
nine additional players that will
“outperform” their draft values based on BBIs expected dollar performance
(available on our website).
Outperform:
Jamie Shields, P, Rays
|
2008 PREDICTED STATS
|
|
Jamie Shields, P
|
G
|
GS
|
CG
|
SHO
|
IP
|
H
|
ER
|
HR
|
BB
|
SO
|
W
|
L
|
SV
|
HLD
|
BLSV
|
ERA
|
WHIP
|
|
Predicted Value $24.83
|
33
|
33
|
1
|
0
|
209.2
|
194
|
87
|
26
|
40
|
177
|
13
|
10
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
3.73
|
1.11
|
|
Shields is on our list largely because he just doesn’t have
the “branding” that other high performing pitchers have across the draft
board. Yes, we only have a sample set of two years
to work with, but a 184K:36BB ratio is on the right side of incredible and
most completely underestimate the
Rays offense which should carry Shields to 13+ wins in ’08. Bid freely to high teens in most
formats, higher in A.L. only
leagues.
Lance Berkman, 1B/OF,
Astros
|
2008 PREDICTED STATS
|
|
Lance Berkman, 1B/OF
|
G
|
AB
|
R
|
H
|
2B
|
3B
|
HR
|
RBI
|
BB
|
K
|
SB
|
CS
|
AVG
|
OBP
|
SLG
|
OPS
|
|
Predicted Value $28.82
|
157
|
582
|
109
|
171
|
38
|
2
|
35
|
117
|
103
|
102
|
5
|
2
|
.293
|
.400
|
.546
|
.946
|
|
Has Eric Clapton ever forgotten the
notes to “Layla”? Has Neil Peart ever
forgotten the snare and bass beats on “Subdivisions”?
In either case, we know that
Berkman forgot to hit in the first two months and oh… he forgot July as
well. Yes, Berkman has
already
tweaked an oblique in Florida,
but assuming he can shake it off, we’d like more of his .295/.383/.579 post
All-Star
performance. He’s not bidding out based on his second half
performance, but we think he can sustain this level of play as long as
he doesn’t
forget the notes. Go to mid-20’s in most
formats.
Gil Meche, P, Royals
|
2008 PREDICTED STATS
|
|
Gil Meche, P
|
G
|
GS
|
CG
|
SHO
|
IP
|
H
|
ER
|
HR
|
BB
|
SO
|
W
|
L
|
SV
|
HLD
|
BLSV
|
ERA
|
WHIP
|
|
Predicted Value $18.99
|
34
|
34
|
1
|
1
|
211.1
|
210
|
92
|
24
|
59
|
161
|
12
|
12
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
3.92
|
1.27
|
|
This is a case of reading the gauges in the right way from
year-to-year. Improving BB:INN, K:BB and decreased HR/INN
provide a strong sense as to where
Meche is headed and with an improved Gordon, and a full year of Butler, we’re hoping
for some improved run support and
12-13 wins. Bid to the teens and look
for a strong season.
Barry Zito, P, SF
|
2008 PREDICTED STATS
|
|
Barry Zito, P
|
G
|
GS
|
CG
|
SHO
|
IP
|
H
|
ER
|
HR
|
BB
|
SO
|
W
|
L
|
SV
|
HLD
|
BLSV
|
ERA
|
WHIP
|
|
Predicted Value $14.88
|
34
|
34
|
0
|
0
|
208.1
|
199
|
92
|
26
|
82
|
138
|
11
|
14
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
3.97
|
1.34
|
|
No, we’re not expecting miracles here and we’re certainly
not expecting Doc Brown to zap Aurilia, Durham
and Vizquel
back to the mid 90’s. This is a question of investment vs. return and
Zito’s stock has fallen so low in many leagues that
the smart money is jumping in,
particularly in the $13 to $14 range. At
this price, you can drop money on Zito as he
should be more consistently good
than consistently bad in ’08.
Andy Sonnanstine, P,
Rays
|
2008 PREDICTED STATS
|
|
Andy Sonnanstine, P
|
G
|
GS
|
CG
|
SHO
|
IP
|
H
|
ER
|
HR
|
BB
|
SO
|
W
|
L
|
SV
|
HLD
|
BLSV
|
ERA
|
WHIP
|
|
Predicted Value $14.76
|
31
|
31
|
0
|
0
|
178.2
|
184
|
87
|
18
|
41
|
149
|
9
|
10
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
4.38
|
1.25
|
|
Two Rays pitchers on any type of list must be some type of
record, but we’d like to think it’s the beginning of the
beginning for the Rays franchise
(that’s St. Pete, not Tampa
for those of us in the know).
Sonnanstine makes this
list not because we expect a 20 win
season (or perhaps even a 10 win season), but due to his minor league pedigree
including sub 3 ERAs at both AA
Montgomery and AAA Durham in ’06. He’ll
need to watch the gopher ball, but
his ability to miss bats in
combination with his command (and increased run support) make Sonnanstine an
off the
radar draft pick in all but the
deepest of A.L. leagues. You’ll be able
to pick him up for pennies on the dollar and
we expect a mid 4’s ERA with solid
peripherals.
Dave Bush, P, Brewers
|
2008
PREDICTED STATS
|
|
Dave Bush, P
|
G
|
GS
|
CG
|
SHO
|
IP
|
H
|
ER
|
HR
|
BB
|
SO
|
W
|
L
|
SV
|
HLD
|
BLSV
|
ERA
|
WHIP
|
|
Predicted Value
$16.27
|
32
|
32
|
1
|
0
|
195.1
|
207
|
92
|
25
|
50
|
140
|
13
|
11
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
4.24
|
1.31
|
|
Only 28, Bush hurt many rosters in ’07 with an increased
HR:INN a reduced K:INN and a major hit to the
WHIP.
What gives? If Bush
can secure a spot in the rotation (Villanueva and Parra are charging hard),
expect ’06 results
while paying based on his ’07
performance. With this lineup, he should
easily surpass Suppan on the performance list.
Hank Blalock, 3B,
Rangers
|
2008
PREDICTED STATS
|
|
Hank Blalock, 3B
|
G
|
AB
|
R
|
H
|
2B
|
3B
|
HR
|
RBI
|
BB
|
K
|
SB
|
CS
|
AVG
|
OBP
|
SLG
|
OPS
|
|
Predicted Value
$15.43
|
140
|
535
|
70
|
149
|
31
|
2
|
21
|
78
|
40
|
87
|
2
|
1
|
.278
|
.331
|
.461
|
.793
|
|
With good health, Blalock could easily out produce our
modest projections. His .313/.405/.656
September ‘07 line in
64 ABs bears watching in Spring Training and edits to your
draft sheets if he’s feeling good. Draft to mid-teens and
watch his progress in Spring
Training.
Wandy Rodriguez, P,
Astros
|
2008 PREDICTED STATS
|
|
Wandy Rodriguez, P
|
G
|
GS
|
CG
|
SHO
|
IP
|
H
|
ER
|
HR
|
BB
|
SO
|
W
|
L
|
SV
|
HLD
|
BLSV
|
ERA
|
WHIP
|
|
Predicted Value $14.73
|
33
|
33
|
1
|
0
|
191.2
|
192
|
94
|
24
|
58
|
160
|
10
|
12
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
4.41
|
1.30
|
|
Many might say that Rodriguez reached his ceiling in ’07,
but significant improvements in almost all important
statistical categories (let’s see,
WHIP, HR:INN, etc.) suggest there may be room
for more improvement. His HR:INN
regressed in the second half, but
that’s not reason enough to ignore Rodriguez, given the new additions (albeit
low OBP)
of Tejada, Bourn and Matsui which
should assist in his pursuit of double digit wins. He’ll go for a few bucks and a bag
of beads in most leagues, but deep
N.L. leagues should nab Rodriguez for less than $8.
Jason Bartlett, SS,
Rays
|
2008 PREDICTED STATS
|
|
Jason Bartlett, SS
|
G
|
AB
|
R
|
H
|
2B
|
3B
|
HR
|
RBI
|
BB
|
K
|
SB
|
CS
|
AVG
|
OBP
|
SLG
|
OPS
|
|
Predicted Value $15.93
|
145
|
536
|
80
|
150
|
23
|
5
|
6
|
49
|
56
|
76
|
19
|
5
|
.279
|
.350
|
.375
|
.725
|
|
The question here is whether or not there’s anything in Bartlett’s resume that
suggest he has a higher ceiling than his
’07 performance. The
answer is yes. Bartlett’s .332/.405/.459 line in ’05 at AAA
Rochester and then an '06 .306/.336/.443
repeat performance provide the hints we're looking for.
Bottomline, he can hit more than his .265/.339/.361 line and with an
improved supporting cast in
St. Pete, we expect to surpass our conservative projections. If you can take Bartlett in the low teens, you have an
upside investment on your roster in
a difficult position to fill. Is that
three Rays on this list?
Enjoy and by all means let us know what you think at GM@baseballinsights.com and please
feel free to share with your
Roto Family. We’ll be back later in the week with “Day
Trader” picks for those of us with a higher risk appetite at the draft
table.
If you want some real-time talk, catch us on RotoChat which
is accessible at:
http://www.baseballinsights.net/curve_ball?curveball_id=27
Good Health, Wealth and Pitching,
Dave Wysocky
GM BaseballInsights
gm@baseballinsights.com
