Curveball: 2009 BBI Mixed, A.L. and N.L. Rookie Rankings Are Now Available!

Dear Baseball Insighters,

Fresh off the presses, we present the 2009 BBI Mixed, A.L. and N.L. Rookie Rankings with some differences you might not see in your Roto magazine of choice. Much like 2008, we’ve included the picks in a matrix that you can customize to your liking (more on this in a moment). Second, although our rankings focus on whether players will have an impact in 2009, we also attempt to balance short-term value with longer term potential. Angel Villalona is a great case in point in that although he has tremendous upside in 2011-12, which is a long-term buy even in most keeper leagues, he simply shouldn’t be much of a factor until 2010, with significant growth in 2011 and ’12. Third, we’re sharing our high-level logic as to how we rank the rooks which is based on four key factors (all on a 1-10 scale, 10 being the best), all of which are weight adjusted as follows:

1) Opportunity (weighted 30%) – represents a player’s chance of “getting the call” to The Show.

2) Contribution (weighted 35%) – represents the impact a player will have (once called up) in any of the 10 statistical categories generally used in 5x5 leagues. Let’s face it, some prospects really won’t add measurable value in any one statistical category…. ever!

3) Playing Time (weighted 20%) – once the player is called up, how often will they play? Will Colby Rasmus sit vs. LHPs once he’s called up? Will James McDonald start or will he be pushed to the bullpen, reducing his opportunity to rack up K’s and Wins?

4) Ceiling (weighted 15%) – very subjective measure of the player’s long-term potential (think 3-5 years out). Although the focus of the BBI rankings are on impact for 2009, we still want to include a balancing factor for player potential.

The results are a bit different than what we’ve seen elsewhere – Chris Perez is well positioned toward the top of our list, not because we think he’s the 2009 version of Jair Jurrjens, but because he has a great combination of opportunity, ability and can generate “Roto friendly” statistical contributions (Ks, SVs) that can make a difference.

We listened to your feedback and have expanded our coverage to 79 N.L. players to provide deeper coverage of high potential prospects who are still honing their skills in the low minors.

Feel free to alter the weightings for you own purposes, based on different league formats and dynamics. We’ve had “Insighters” in deep keeper leagues tweak the “Ceiling” weighting to focus more on long-term prospects that are still available in upcoming drafts.

As with last year, you won’t see any experienced Japanese players on this list as we don’t believe these are rookies in the traditional sense (check out their player profiles for predicted performances/values). There may also be a player or two that violates MLB’s definition of rookie eligibility and we understand that we have bent and/or broken some of the rules because we can…;)

Enjoy and by all means let us know what you think at GM@baseballinsights.com and please feel free to share with your roto family.

We should be able to post the A.L. Rankings at some point next week.

Good Health, Wealth and Pitching,

Dave Wysocky

GM BaseballInsights

gm@baseballinsights.com

2009 BBI Mixed Rookie Rankings					Weightings	0.3	0.35	0.2	0.15
Ranking	Player	Age	Position	Team	Score	Opportunity	Contribution	Playing Time	Ceiling
1	David Price	23	P	Rays	10.00	10	10	10	10
2	Matt Wieters	23	C	Orioles	9.35	9	9	10	10
3	Travis Snider	21	OF	Blue Jays	8.50	9	8	9	8
4	Cameron Maybin	22	OF	Marlins	8.45	9	7	9	10
5	Aaron Poreda	22	P	White Sox	8.35	8	8	9	9
6	Neftali Perez	21	P	Rangers	8.35	8	8	9	9
7	Rick Porcello	20	P	Tigers	8.30	8	8	8	10
8	Jose Mijares	24	P	Twins	8.30	10	7	9	7
9	Chris Perez	24	P	Cards	8.00	9	8	8	6
10	Gio Gonzalez	23	P	Athletics	8.00	9	7	9	7
11	Seth Smith	26	OF	Rockies	7.90	10	8	6	6
12	Jordan Schafer	22	OF	Braves	7.35	7	7	8	8
13	Brett Anderson	21	P	Athletics	7.35	8	6	9	7
14	Sergio Romo	26	P	Giants	7.35	9	6	9	5
15	Elvis Andrus	20	SS	Rangers	7.20	6	8	7	8
16	Carlos Rosa	24	P	Royals	7.10	8	7	6	7
17	Matt LaPorta	24	OF	Indians	7.05	6	8	7	7
18	Jose Ceda	22	P	Marlins	7.05	6	7	8	8
19	James McDonald	24	P	Dodgers	7.00	8	6	8	6
20	Gaby Sanchez	25	1B	Marlins	6.95	9	5	8	6
21	Kila Ka'Aihue	24	1B	Royals	6.85	6	8	6	7
22	Yonder Alonso	22	1B	Reds	6.85	3	8	9	9
23	Kevin Mulvey	24	P	Twins	6.85	7	6	8	7
24	Taylor Teagarden	25	C	Rangers	6.80	8	5	8	7
25	Ryan Tucker	22	P	Marlins	6.80	8	5	8	7
26	Pedro Alvarez	22	3B	Pirates	6.80	4	7	9	9
27	Wade Davis	23	P	Rays	6.75	5	7	8	8
28	Derek Holland	22	P	Rangers	6.70	6	6	8	8
29	Tommy Hanson	22	P	Braves	6.70	5	6	8	10
30	Chris Getz	25	2B	White Sox	6.65	8	5	8	6
31	David Huff	24	P	Indians	6.65	7	6	7	7
32	Lars Anderson	21	1B	Red Sox	6.60	5	6	9	8
33	Carlos Santana	23	C	Indians	6.60	4	7	8	9
34	Justin Smoak	22	1B	Rangers	6.55	5	7	7	8
35	J.P. Arencibia	23	C	Blue Jays	6.50	6	6	7	8
36	Brett Cecil	23	P	Blue Jays	6.50	7	6	7	6
37	Clayton Richard	25	P	White Sox	6.50	7	6	7	6
38	Trevor Cahill	21	P	Athletics	6.50	6	6	7	8
39	Kevin Jepsen	25	P	Angels	6.45	8	6	6	5
40	Mike Moustakas	20	3B	Royals	6.40	4	7	7	9
41	Guillermo Moscoso	25	P	Tigers	6.35	7	6	7	5
42	Daniel Cortes	22	P	Royals	6.35	6	6	7	7
43	Kris Medlen	23	P	Braves	6.35	7	6	7	5
44	Troy Patton	23	P	Orioles	6.30	7	5	7	7
45	Andrew McCutchen	22	OF	Pirates	6.30	7	5	7	7
46	Rockiesby Rasmus	22	OF	Cards	6.30	4	6	9	8
47	Jeremy Hellickson	22	P	Rays	6.30	3	7	8	9
48	Max Ramirez	24	C	Rangers	6.30	7	6	6	6
49	Scott Elbert	23	P	Dodgers	6.30	7	6	6	6
50	Sean West	23	P	Marlins	6.25	4	7	7	8
51	J. A. Happ	26	P	Phillies	6.25	6	6	8	5
52	Reid Brignac	23	SS	Rays	6.25	5	6	8	7
53	Jeff Niemann	26	P	Rays	6.25	5	6	8	7
54	Dexter Fowler	23	OF	Rockies	6.25	5	6	8	7
55	Brandon Allen	23	1B	White Sox	6.20	5	7	6	7
56	Alfredo Aceves	26	P	Yankees	6.15	8	5	7	4
57	Ryan Perry	22	P	Tigers	6.15	6	6	6	7
58	Jarrod Parker	20	P	Dbacks	6.15	3	6	9	9
59	Adam Brewersler	24	P	Indians	6.10	7	5	6	7
60	Chris Carter	22	1B	Athletics	6.10	4	8	6	6
61	Carlos Carrasco	22	P	Phillies	6.10	5	5	9	7
62	Mark Melancon	24	P	Yankees	6.05	6	6	7	5
63	Cale Iorg	23	SS	Tigers	6.05	5	6	7	7
64	Bret Wallace	22	3B	Cards	6.05	5	6	7	7
65	Chris Tillman	21	P	Orioles	6.00	5	6	6	8
66	Anthony Swarzak	23	P	Twins	6.00	6	5	7	7
67	James Simmons	22	P	Athletics	6.00	7	5	7	5
68	Chris Dickerson	27	OF	Reds	6.00	7	6	6	4
69	Gordon Beckham	22	SS	White Sox	5.95	4	6	8	7
70	Jeff LDbackssh	26	1B	Tigers	5.95	7	6	5	5
71	Desmond Jennings	22	OF	Rays	5.90	4	6	7	8
72	Jeff Samardzija	24	P	Cubs	5.90	6	5	8	5
73	Dusty Ryan	24	C	Tigers	5.90	7	5	5	7
74	Nolan Reimold	25	OF	Orioles	5.85	5	6	6	7
75	Carlos Gutierrez	22	P	Twins	5.85	5	6	6	7
76	Aaron Cunningham	23	OF	Athletics	5.85	6	6	6	5
77	Brad Holt	22	P	Mets	5.85	5	6	6	7
78	Jonathon Niese	22	P	Mets	5.80	7	4	7	6
79	Nick Evans	23	OF	Mets	5.80	7	5	6	5
80	John Shelby	23	OF	White Sox	5.80	3	7	7	7
81	Todd Frazier	23	SS	Reds	5.75	4	6	7	7
82	Jason Motte	27	P	Cards	5.75	5	7	6	4
83	Will Venable	26	OF	Padres	5.75	8	5	5	4
84	Brian Matusz	22	P	Orioles	5.70	4	6	6	8
85	Vin Mazzaro	22	P	Athletics	5.70	5	6	6	6
86	Logan Morrison	21	1B	Marlins	5.65	3	6	8	7
87	Fernando Martinez	20	OF	Mets	5.65	3	6	8	7
88	Jeff Sues	26	P	Pirates	5.65	7	6	5	3
89	Kyle Banks	22	1B	Padres	5.65	3	6	8	7
90	Nick Weglarz	21	OF	Indians	5.60	3	6	7	8
91	Michael Bowden	22	P	Red Sox	5.55	5	5	7	6
92	Brad Emaus	23	2B	Blue Jays	5.55	5	6	6	5
93	Michael Brantley	22	OF	Indians	5.55	4	6	6	7
94	Nick Adenhart	22	P	Angels	5.50	6	4	7	6
95	Jason Heyward	19	OF	Braves	5.50	2	6	8	8
96	Angel Salome	23	C	Brewers	5.50	6	4	7	6
97	Matt Antonelli	24	2B	Padres	5.50	6	5	6	5
98	Jordan Zimmerman	23	P	Nats	5.45	3	5	8	8
99	Philliesl Coke	27	P	Yankees	5.40	6	5	7	3
100	Wilkin Ramirez	23	OF	Tigers	5.40	5	5	7	5
101	Michael Saunders	22	OF	Dbacks	5.35	6	4	7	5
102	Mat Gamel	23	3B	Brewers	5.35	5	5	6	6
103	Daniel Schlereth	23	P	Dbacks	5.35	5	5	6	6
104	Ivan DeJesus Jr.	22	SS	Dodgers	5.30	3	5	8	7
105	Chris Coghlan	24	2B	Marlins	5.30	3	6	7	6
106	Lou Marson	23	C	Phillies	5.20	4	5	6	7
107	Jess Todd	23	P	Cards	5.20	5	5	6	5
108	Blake Wood	23	P	Royals	5.15	5	5	5	6
109	Drew Stubbs	24	OF	Reds	5.15	6	4	6	5
110	Adam Moore	25	C	Dbacks