2009 OF Value Picks ….
Sleepers Need Not Apply
I’ve said it before, I’ll say it again, sleepers
do not exist. There are bolts of
lightning like Ryan Dempster’s “Sub-3” 2008
performance and those unexplainable seasons such as AGon’s
57 HRs or Carl Pavano’s 18
Wins (snicker, snicker), but in this information age where you don’t have to
wait for the USA Today truck to restock the newspaper machines at 5:15am (yes,
I did this once…only once…. I swear… really), there are few true “out of
nowhere” players that wake up and bring home the numbers (although I always
thought Roberto Mejia and Geronimo Pena were going to take that quantum leap). Ahhh, but there is
a secret stash of “Value Picks”, or players that could very well out produce or
“overperform” in our investment banking lingo their
cost at the draft table.
Because we’ve generated draft values in addition to
predicted performance values (draft dollars are constrained to available
dollars, predicted performance is not), we’ve isolated 14 players who can be
expected to easily outperform their BBI Draft values (both values available on
our Player Value Spreadsheet “PVS” for short).
We completely understand that draft value is highly
dependent on the order in which players are called and you should refine the
list based on your own league preferences.
The following players were handpicked from a standard mixed, 12 team, 5x5, 23 player PVS setting.
|
Rank
|
Player
|
Team
|
BBI Pred
2009 Performance Value
|
BBI 2009 Draft Value
|
PPV-DV
|
|
24
|
Willy
Taveras
|
Reds
|
$24.47
|
$14.42
|
$10.05
|
|
31
|
Chris
Young
|
Diamondbacks
|
$22.60
|
$10.98
|
$11.62
|
|
33
|
Lastings Milledge
|
Nationals
|
$22.27
|
$10.65
|
$11.61
|
|
39
|
Randy
Winn
|
Giants
|
$20.73
|
$8.76
|
$11.97
|
|
43
|
Fred
Lewis
|
Giants
|
$20.13
|
$7.95
|
$12.18
|
|
46
|
Coco Crisp
|
Royals
|
$19.78
|
$7.66
|
$12.12
|
|
51
|
Jeremy
Hermida
|
Marlins
|
$19.25
|
$7.04
|
$12.21
|
|
70
|
Ben
Francisco
|
Indians
|
$15.75
|
$3.69
|
$12.06
|
|
72
|
Jody
Gerut
|
Padres
|
$15.32
|
$3.29
|
$12.03
|
|
79
|
Matthew
Joyce
|
Devil Rays
|
$13.92
|
$0.28
|
$13.65
|
|
84
|
Xavier
Nady
|
Yankees
|
$13.13
|
$0.27
|
$12.86
|
|
104
|
Ryan
Freel
|
Orioles
|
$8.10
|
$0.23
|
$7.87
|
|
105
|
Scott
Hairston
|
Padres
|
$7.92
|
$0.23
|
$7.69
|
|
107
|
Seth
Smith
|
Rockies
|
$7.35
|
$0.23
|
$7.12
|
Willy Taveras is widely panned for his inability to steal
first base, but from a fantasy standpoint, we know he’ll be penciled into the
leadoff spot regardless of his poor OBP skills.
He could easily steal 50 bases which tastes
like pure gold in virtually all 5x5 leagues.
Chris Young
owners hope that last year’s second half is more indicative of a potential 2009
breakout. Even with tempered
expectations, 25 HRs, 25 SBs
and a .260 AVG should be reachable.
Although I still have flashbacks of Lasting Milledge’s “Slack-tacular” performance in the last regular season game of
2007, we fully expect him to make positive strides in 2009. He should slip to the later rounds for those
of us in non-auction leagues, but could even outperform our projections with
some modest lineup protection.
Jeremy Hermida has popped two HRs
this year and whether nagging injuries or high expectations derailed his 2008
season, we can expect a significant contribution in 2009. Although it’s too early to understand if his
2007 campaign was a fluke, he should come closer to reaching his career
.294/.398/.436 minor league numbers.
Classic value picks can often be found on horrible teams and
the bunion free Fred Lewis and Randy Winn should produce solid
performances despite the poor lineup.
By all means, use the PVS to customize your own “Value
Picks” list heading into the draft by comparing draft values vs. predicted
performance values and as always, let us know what you think at GM@baseballinsights.com.
Good Health, Wealth and Pitching,
Dave Wysocky
GM BaseballInsights
gm@baseballinsights.com
